As the Cardinals embarked on a self-proclaimed youth movement that commenced last offseason, veterans like , and had control over their futures by virtue of their contracts no-trade provisions. Arenado ultimately wound up considering trade po sibilities anyhow, but Gray and Contreras quickly made their intentions to remain in St. Louis clear to the club. That wont be the case for Gray in the coming offseason, however. Asked following last nights game whether he feels he has to consider greenlighting a trade this winter, the former All-Star was candid in acknowledging a change in tune ( ): I think I do, just to be frank and to be honest. I definitely think I do. Whether I do decide that I want to go somewhere whether that actually happens I dont have complete control of that. Obviously, I have control of where I cant go or dont go. Im going to be 36. Its going to be my 14th season. Last year of my contract for this. I dont know what the future holds for me. Gray, 36 in November, has enjoyed another solid season in 2025, pitching to a 4.28 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, a 5% walk rate and a 43 Joshua Roy Jersey .9% ground-ball rate in 180 2/3 innings. Metrics like FIP (3.39) and SIERA (3.29) feel hes been far better than that more rudimentary earned run average would indicate. Since signing with the Cards in the 2023-24 offseason, Gray has made 60 starts and turned in a 4.07 ERA (3.27 FIP, 3.16 SIERA) in 347 innings. On the surface, that performance and Grays broader track record would seem to create plenty of trade value but the right-handers contract complicates matters. Even beyond the full no-trade protection, the backloaded nature of the contract will make it difficult for new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom (who was announced as current president John Mozeliaks succe sor last October) to extract real value in return for the former Cy Young runner-up. Gray is entering the final season of a three-year, $75MM contract. However, he earned just $10MM of that sum in year one of the contract and $25MM in 2025. Hes owed a ma sive $35MM salary for the 2026 season and at least a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option for the 2027 season. The 2022-26 CBA stipulates that for traded players, their luxury tax hit is recalculated to match the remainder of their contract. As such, Gray comes with a $40MM CBT number. To a team that isnt paying the luxury tax, thats perhaps not a dealbreaker. But for third-time payors in the top penalty tier (e.g. Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees), Gray would come with a 110% tax; hed effectively cost them a staggering $84MM. No team is going to that length for one year of Gray, Plus, the Cards cant even pitch the 27 club option as a potential benefit. Grays contract stipulates that if his 2027 option is exercised, he can simply void the option and elect free agency. If Gray pitches well enough next year to merit a $30MM salary in 2027, hell probably just opt out once that option is exercised. Thatd spare the new team $5MM in guaranteed money (plus any a sociated taxes), but thats not really a selling point for the Cardinals when negotiating. While weve seen a select few pitchers secure an annual value exceeding the effective one year and $40MM remaining on Grays contract, that its been reserved only for clear Cy Young-caliber arms coming off peak seasons. and both secured $43.333MM annual values when they were even older than Gray, but Verlander was coming off an AL Cy Young win in 2022 and Scherzer had just posted a 2.46 ERA and finished third in NL Cy Young balloting the year prior. s three-year extension with the Phillies pays him $42MM annually but was signed when Wheeler was a year younger and had turned in a combined 3.06 ERA in his previous 629 1/3 innings. Gray, of course, is a decorated pitcher himself a former first-round pick and three-time All-Star who has twice finished in the top-three of American Cy Young voting. That includes a second-place Cy Young finish with Minnesota as recently as 2023. His work with the Cardinals has been a few steps below those other $40MM-per-year aces, however. Theres little doubt that Gray would be an in-demand commodity, in a vacuum. Hes 13th among all major league pitchers in terms of innings pitched since the 2019 season and carries a strong 3.51 ERA in that time. He mi ses bats, boasts plus command and keeps the ball on the ground at a slightly above-average clip. If Gray were a free agent and were to declare that he would only sign a one-year deal, its feasible that he could command close to $30MM, or perhaps even a slight bit more. Teams especially big-market, high-payroll clubs are often willing to pay a premium in terms of AAV to limit the long-term risk on free-agent contracts. Even if there are teams who value him in that range though, the Cardinals would need to eat around $10MM just to pay Gray down to market value. If they wanted to actually create the type of surplus value that would net them a notable return in terms of prospects, theyd probably need to eat closer to $20-25MM of the contract. That probably wouldnt net them a premium prospect, but at that price point they could justify asking for a solid minor leaguer or two to add to the middle tiers of their farm system. Its not yet clear how comfortable Cards ownership will be with paying substantial money to net a prospect return. If simply clearing salary is the goal, the Cards could probably eat $8-10MM and find a taker with little to no return similar to the Cubs trade of to the Yankees last winter. The strength of any potential return will be contingent upon how much of the contract the DeWitt family is willing to pay down. Those are conversations that Bloom and ownership will have in the weeks ahead. Whats clear at this point is both Grays intention to consider the po sibility of waiving that full no-trade clause and the type of offseason that looms on the horizon for the Cardinals. I know the deal, Gray last night said after noting that he and Bloom have spoken at length about the upcoming offseason. I know the direction. I came here to win. I signed here two years ago with the expectation of winning and trying to win, and that hasnt played out that way. I want to win. I want to win, and I expect to win. Based on everything Gray said last night, theres a very real chance that yesterdays outing six innings, two runs, seven hits, two walks, seven strikeouts represents the final appearance of his Cardinals tenure. David Savard Jersey