NFC ceilingfloor scenarios High variance for Dallas Arizon

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Is Green Bay going 13-3 ... or 9-7?What about, say, the ? Are they an 11-5 AFC East division winner ... or destined to toil in the sub-.500 range?With the all-important third week of the preseason in the rearview, I've been a signed to find ceilings and floors for all 32 teams. This means answering two questions. First, what will each team's record be if everything goes right? Like, if throws over 30 touchdown pa ses, how many wins will Bruce Arians' group accumulate? On the flip side, what will the floor be if slumps in Cincy, or is more Walk than Run DMC in Big D?Below, you'll find both scenarios -- and how each would come to pa s -- for every NFC team, with the AFC squads grouped under the tab to the right.Before we dive in, though, I'd like to point out one important note: Health i sues are only mentioned if they are pre-existing conditions -- like 's groin ailment in Houston or 's 39 years on Planet Earth. Let's be honest: About 26 teams in the league would be absolutely doomed if their starting quarterback went down. So there's no reason to explore random injury hypotheticals. Every other potential eventuality is in play.Take a gander below, and feel free to share your thoughts about the best-case scenario or basement script for your team (or any team, for that matter): is the place.NFC EASTDALLAS COWBOYSCeiling: 13-3. Dallas eclipses last season's regular-season mark if takes off for about 1,200 yards and provides 10 sacks. playing 16 games sure would help, too. (A player's best ability? Availability.)Floor: 7-9. The come in at a sluggish 7-9 if is walking around like Gollum by midseason, suffering the wrath of that bad back. Also in this scenario, the ground game fails to deliver without , while , and Gregory all fail to live up to expectations on the D-line. is a rather large step in the wrong direction.NEW YORK GIANTSCeiling: 11-5. New York conceivably could win the NFC East by outscoring everyone. Conceivably. Though the will have to get off to a fast start in Year 2 of coordinator Bob McAdoo's offense, which hasn't been the case in the preseason. (Big Blue's first-team offense has scored 10 points in 12 po se sions.) Jr. can't slump and must resume being . The defense has to at least hold the fort.Floor: 6-10. Big Blue will feel the 6-10 blues if slumps early and is (again) unavailable to pick up the slack. In this hypothetical, is a bust and fails to get pre sure on opposing quarterbacks upon his return. The don't have the horses on defense to compensate for underperformance from either player.PHILADELPHIA EAGLESCeiling: 12-4. How does Philly soar to 12 wins? realizes the potential everyone's been waiting to see him fulfill since his legendary pro-day workout back in 2010. (Just keep him out of the read-option a little more often, please.) stays upright and goes from pretty good rookie to sexy sophomore.Floor: 7-9. This team is too talented to go 6-10 or worse. I think. Even if Bradford gets hurt again, can be adequate in his stead. That said, if and falter, that's a problem. And if the new-look O-line fails to live up to , this offense won't rack up the points at the rate everyone anticipates.WASHINGTON REDSKINSCeiling: 10-6. Whoa nelly, *so *many things have to go right ... Obviously, in the wake of , everything starts with the fourth-year pro flourishing under center. The , and are not all gonna stink, so the front seven -- particularly and -- needs to impose its will.Floor: 4-12. I don't see the being this bad again, but it's po sible, if Cousins struggles and neither nor can pick up the slack. In this 4-12 vision of futility, ' yards-per-carry mark continues to drop -- going below 4.0 for the first time in his career -- while the and acquisitions prove worthle s.NFC NORTHCHICAGO BEARSCeiling: 10-6. For Chicago to win 10 games, has to really rally the troops, because the rest of the division is too strong and the ' defense is too weak. If has a big season as the WR1, catches 70 balls and the new 3-4 defense doesn't break (even if it significantly bends), why not? (Don't answer that.)Floor: 5-11. No team in the NFC North is going 4-12, not even Chicago. Even if the defense is awful, the offense should compensate. But if Cutler continues to throw picks at a high rate, is out and regre ses, Kenneth Dixon Jersey fans are going to chuck up their bratwursts as the new-look defense gets flattened.DETROIT LIONSCeiling: 11-5. plays lights-out, the defense doesn't mi s and rushes for over 1,000 yards at 4.5 a pop -- yeah, all of that will net the about 11 wins. could be due for a bit of a statistical regre sion, through no fault of his own, after a monster 99-catch, 1,331-yard debut season in Detroit. That's OK. Complement a healthy by logging 80 grabs and eight scores; that's what Detroit needs. And please play in those basic throwbacks, .Floor: 7-9. Detroit is one team I don't see getting too far up or too far down this season. Management has put together too strong a core for Jim Caldwell's group to completely flounder. However, in a falling-to-the-floor scenario, (31 years old) would prove to be over the hill, while and would mi s playing with the destructive force of nature that is Suh.GREEN BAY PACKERSCeiling: 13-3. The nabbed a few weeks back, but I don't see them going better than 13-3. In order for Green Bay to win 13 games, has to put up around 4,600 yards and 41 TDs, with about 12 to 15 of them going to . (Remember: , sadly.) Also, needs to provide true balance for the full schedule, while the kids in the secondary have to contribute immediately.Floor: 9-7. Can't see this team going .500 or worse, barring an injury to Rodgers (which, as we laid out in the intro, is not in play in this exercise). However, if (35) hits the career wall, can't compensate and the front three struggles mightily, the could be in trouble. Especially if Rodgers is le s than 112.2 pa ser rating amazing.MINNESOTA VIKINGSCeiling: 11-5. Admittedly, so much has to go right for the to go 11-5, like: flirting with 2,000 yards, posting a 98.7 pa ser rating with only 10 picks and Matt Blair finally making the . Oh, and not driving fans nuts. Well, he still could, but and can't disappoint.Floor: 5-11. Feel like this team has a much larger swing radius than the . What if the wideouts stink? What if disappears (like he has at times) at tight end? What if Peterson isn't the same player at 30? What if the Vikes' solution at middle linebacker isn't a solution? What if Bridgewater doesn't make the jump most expect in Year 2?NFC SOUTHATLANTA FALCONSCeiling: 10-6. Somehow, some way, the could eke out double-digit wins. Though I don't think even the most ardent fan in Atlanta -- the guy with a framed poster of Je sie Tuggle -- feels that way. The defense has to generate some kind of fierce pa s rush (despite limited personnel on that front) and has to be a difference-making back in Year 1.Floor: 4-12. Big swing here for this team. Dan Quinn's motivational tactics would have to fall flat for Atlanta to win le s than five games. would be a complete non-factor at tight end, and would significantly slow down at wideout in Year 11. Most crucially, in this scenario, would fail to provide a lift in the pa s rush.CAROLINA PANTHERSCeiling: 10-6. This club probably could have been better than the one that went 12-4 two years ago -- IF were healthy. Of course, . If grows up quickly, uses his legs to mask his inefficiency as a thrower and proves he can be a full-time back, double-digit wins might be in the cards.Floor: 6-10. Carolina should win the NFC South for the third consecutive season, but 6-10 isn't that far a drop from the ' 7-8-1 campaign of a year ago. Honestly, I see this team winning the division at 9-6-1. (That's right, give the another tie.) However, if Newton tries to prove he is a pocket pa ser, the fun rookie cla s of 2014 stinks in 2015 and the defense can't carry Carolina down the stretch again ...NEW ORLEANS SAINTSCeiling: 10-6. In a world where these log 10 wins ... rushes for 1,000-plus yards and 10 touchdowns, with Sean Payton effectively shifting New Orleans to a steady ball-control offense. is not asked to carry the team. at least comes close to living up to ridiculously high fantasy expectations (give him 90 catches for 1,150 yards and 10 touchdowns). equals 2.0. And Rob Ryan's defense doesn't finish in the bottom five.Floor: 6-10. New Orleans should win more than six games ... but if the pa s rush is punchle s and the club gets nothing out of again, no bueno. In this six-win scenario, Ingram regre ses to the non-halcyon days of 2011-13, while Cooks fails to take the next step. And the defense gets another year of 2014 , as opposed to the rookie stud of 2013.TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERSCeiling: 9-7. Tampa relives the glory days of 1979 again if ... pulls a Doug Williams (by developing rather quickly) and the defense even comes close to what those old John McKay teams did with Lee Roy Selmon coming off the edge. In this scenario, becomes a strong candidate to knock off his Defensive Player of the Year perch, while scores 10 times.Floor: 3-13. There's no way the Bucs can go 2-14 again, right? Uh ... unle s can't get anything behind a putrid offensive line. And endures the same kind of sophomore slump Martin suffered back in 2013. Devoid of help, Winston forces enough balls to throw 26 picks. Meanwhile, opposing QBs enjoy 26 seconds to throw the ball.NFC WESTARIZONA CARDINALSCeiling: 12-4. comes out flat dealin'. evolves into a WR1 and (32) puts up the stop sign on the aging proce s. To win 12 games, the Cards have to get something out of the running game -- not the 3 yards and a cloud of blahthey got last season. Also, in this scenario, the defense doesn't mi s former coordinator Todd Bowles.Floor: 6-10. Palmer plays as inconsistently as he did in some of his later days in Cincinnati. The are afflicted with even worse luck in the health department than they were in 2014. And, perhaps most importantly, the defense fails to produce the late-game turnovers and big plays that helped this team jump out to 9-1 last season.ST. LOUIS RAMSCeiling: 10-6. The trade for gleams so brightly by the end of the season that general manager Les Snead has to clear space on the mantel for a prime piece of hardware. (No, he already owns the Hair of the Millennium award -- I'm talkin' Executive of the Year.) scampers for about 90 yards per game upon returning to the field in Week 5. And the defensive front wrecks games for opponents.Floor: 6-10. Foles can't complete a lick downfield -- kind of like early last season in Philly. Gurley's return is slower than expected, causing to be the man asked to carry the offense. And in this six-win outlook for the , the back seven is shown to be more middle-of-the-pack than middle-of-January-football-caliber.SAN FRANCISCO 49ERSCeiling: 10-6. Don't laugh ... It's po sible. must develop some touch ... some loft ... basically, refine the parts of his game that could make a wideout's job easier. becomes 2.0 with a bit more speed. Lastly, plays like an All-Pro pa s rusher, because he might not have any help.Floor: 5-11. San Francisco still maintains a decent talent level, even if the prognostications of a season in Mordor continue to run rampant. That said, now devoid of and fresh off enough retirements to start an Old-Timers' Team, Jim Tomsula sees the dearth of front-line players cause a ripple effect in his defense. #4-12?SEATTLE SEAHAWKSCeiling: 15-1. OK, so I don't see Seattle -- or any other team -- going 16-0. And even though the take a back seat to Green Bay in the Power Rankings, they have a shot to achieve a better record if -- if -- the trade goes better than anyone expects. And if the offensive line holds up. And if the secondary gets together again.Floor: 10-6. (29) begins showing his age. The O-line (sans ) plays to its talent level instead of the lofty ambitions of a sistant coach Tom Cable. In this hypothetical, safeties and are not ready/available at the start of the season. And Graham's debut campaign in the Pacific Northwest? Mediocreville.Follow Elliot Harrison on Twitter . Jordan Stout Jersey

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