There is no source of optimism in football quite as strong as having a top pick under center. When that quarterback is a national champion, a Heisman winner and the only option for No. 1 overall, the hype tends to run rampant. Let it. Not because Fernando Mendoza is guaranteed to bring about a new age of football, or because Las Vegas is uniquely situated to develop him into a star. But because Mendoza represents all that's po sible, and the fun that comes with thinking your guy might be "the" guy. Raiders fans have earned the right to overreact to preseason completions and training camp clips. They'll be calling him better than Bo Nix by the bye week, with much loftier comparisons if things go well. For the first time in a long time, it's good to be a part of the Las Vegas faithful. Before the Mendoza era begins, let's take a look at how he might perform. Fernando Mendoza projections I built a projection to model with the hopes of forecasting the 2026 season for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Needle s to say, injecting rookies into the equation was the hardest part. With no NFL data to reference, uncertainties regarding their rookie-year roles and a heavy bias toward the league average, there's inherent uncertainty baked in. Hopefully, folding in play-callers, mobility buckets and a handful of other factors can add a little more accuracy. Median projection: 290/447 (64.9%), 3,170 pa sing yards (7.1 per attempt), 18.7 touchdowns, 9.9 interceptions, 33 sacks, 27 rushes for 120 yards and 0.2 touchdowns On balance, Raiders fans can feel good about those numbers. The volume isn't crazy (more on that later), but his efficiency, both by completion percentage and yards per attempt, hovers around league average. This makes sense given the player we project Mendoza to be. My comparison for Mendoza was a cro s between Dak Prescott and Sam Darnold. He proce ses well, has the arm talent to stretch the field and should keep the offense on track, but can get erratic under pre sure, where his pocket presence and footwork need development. The consensus Andrew Toles Jersey seemed eager to compare him to the likes of Jared Goff, whose consistency has been elevated by an electric supporting cast. Living up to most of those names would be a win for the Raiders, even if the rest of the roster's talent limits their win total. Mendoza merely looking the part of the franchise quarterback is the goal in Year 1, much like Drake Maye in 2024 before his recent ascension. Just give fans a good reason to believe, and they'll love you. One of the limiting factors on Mendoza's rookie year might be Kirk Cousins, the veteran meant to mentor him. Between baseline injury rates, Mendoza's lack of experience and Cousins' competence, the model only projects the rookie to take 80% of Las Vegas' offensive snaps. Cousins (82/125, 893 yards, 5.1 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) is expected to take the rest. Las Vegas may hint at Cousins getting early-season looks to let Mendoza start when truly ready, but we've seen this story before. Mendoza is a pro-ready prospect who isn't being asked to take the kind of leap that Jaxson Dart, Anthony Richardson and J.J. McCarthy have been burdened with. He's going to start, and he's going to start early. MORE: Interestingly enough, the model's 75th- and 25th-percentile outcomes are remarkably similar to the median, ranging from 3,005 to 3,309 yards, 16 to 21 touchdowns and 8 to 12 interceptions. Perhaps it's under-indexing the variance that comes with a rookie quarterback's learning curve, but Mendoza's profile radiates stability. If he fails, it won't be in spectacular fashion with record-setting turnover rates or unfathomable completion percentages (sorry, Indianapolis). Rather, it's more likely that Mendoza is too safe within structure, limiting his efficiency and putting him in adversarial situations that may inflate his turnover and sack rates. Compared to other first-overall picks, Mendoza compares favorably. Cam Ward (59.8%, 3,169 yards, 15 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) struggled despite his flashes last season. Caleb Williams (62.5%, 3,541 yards, 20 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) faced similar doubt before his talent took over. Mendoza lands between those two as prospects, and because it's his lack of blue-chip upside that dampens his profile, he should offer a steadier hand than both in Year 1. It'll take a lot more than Mendoza to compete with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and a vaunted defense, but that's a problem for next year. This one's about getting to see Mendoza in action, avoiding disaster and setting the foundation for the next good Raiders team. My numbers give him a pretty good chance of delivering on that. More Raiders news Blake Treinen Jersey